Sunday, December 12, 2010

Lunar Calendar - Commonly misunderstood simple facts

Lunar Calendar

Commonly misunderstood simple facts

Many times I have found myself in discussions where certain periods in time and certain astronomical events have been associated with their benevolent/ not so benevolent effect, depending on how these have been interpreted by the religious Gurus. Some periods that repeatedly come up in discussion are Adhik-Mass, the Intercalary month in the Lunar Calendar and Dakshinayan/ Uttrayan - The apparent movement of sun in southward or northward direction. To understand these better I picked up one book that I had read earlier and I knew had good and easy explanation of the lunar calendar - "Dating the Era of Lord Ram". The explanation below is essentially an extract from that book.

Year

Seasons

( 4 months)

Ritus

(2 months)

Lunar Months

Coincides with

(5000 BC)

Coincides with

(As of Today)

One Year

Grisham

Vasant

Chaitra

December January

March-April

Vaishakh

January - February

April-May

Grisham

Jyestha

February- March

May-June

Ashad

March-April

June-July

Varsha

Varsha

Sawan

April-May

July-August

Bhadrapad

May-June

August-September

Sharad

Aswin

June-July

September-October

Kartik

July-August

October-November

Sheet

Hemant

Margsrish

August-September

November-December

Paush

September-October

December January

Sishir

Magh

October-November

January - February

Phalgun

November-December

February- March

Lunar Calendar

Every month Indian lunar calendar begins with the first day after full moon (Krishna Paksh or decreasing phase of moon) and ends with full moon(Puranmasi)

The first month of our traditional calendar, Chaitra, begins with Shukal Paksh(First day after no moon day of Chaitra). Thus new year beings in the middle of Chaitra. The first half of Chaitra is counted in the previous year.

Everything in space is in motion. However, the closest heavenly bodies seem to be moving faster, while the far away objects seem to be still. That is the reason why the planets, sun and moon which are closer to earth seem to move while the stars seem to just be fixed in space. A group of stars is called a constellation. Entire sky is mapped using eighty-eight constellations. There are twelve constellations that are in the plane against which planets move. Each constellation occupies 30 degree of the background.

As observed earlier, as the constellations are made of stars which are very far, these constellations seem to remain fixed in the sky while the planets move in and out of them in the foreground.

The precession cycle

Actually, after 365.25 years when we count the completion of one calendar year, the earth does not come back exactly to the previous year's position in its elliptical path around the sun. Actually it takes 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes and 46 seconds to complete on full circle. Hence the earth falls back in its path by 0.0136 degree every year, which is 13.6 degrees every 1000 years.

Since one zodiac is 30 degrees, the earth falls back by one zodiac every 2,200 years. Since observer is on earth, the sun seems to move backward in the precession cycle by one constellation every 2,200 years. Thus due to the precession cycle, the sun would repeat its position in the same zodiac in about 25,920 years.

Nakshatras

The fastest mover in the sky is moon. It completes the round of the ecliptic in about 29 days. In other words, it travels about 12.4 degrees in the sky every day. Since one zodiac is 30 degrees, the moon stays in every zodiac for more than 2 days. But, since there is no change in the position of the planets in these two days, the uniqueness of planetary configuration for each day would have disappeared. With a view to make astronomical observations more accurate and precise, the number of constellations were further divided into 27 equal divisions, by identifying 27 prominent bright stars in the constellations, which were equidistance from each other at about 13.33 degrees.

The moon which moves 12.4 degree every day is roughly closer to one of these stars every day and therefore it is possible to ascertain its position everyday even though it remains in the same zodiac These 27 stars are called nakshatras. Therefore there are 2 or 3 nakshatras in one zodiac.

Identification of 27 nakshatras gave birth to lunar calendar. Of the 27 days, one day would be full moon day. That nakshatra, near which the full moon occurred, gave the name to the month of the lunar calendar. For example, if on the full moon day, the moon was near the star called Ashwini, that day will reckon the end of the month of Ashwin. Similarly, Vaishakh would complete on the full moon night in which the moon is near the start called Vaishakha.

Since the occurrence of a full moon day indicates the completion of a lunar month, a full moon day is traditionally called "Puran-Masi". In entire year there are 12 full moon days (barring Adhik-maas or the intercalary month) which is added after every two and a half year. On these 12 full moon days moon will always be near 12 pre-identified stars or nakshatras. Thus, the 12 months of the lunar year are named after these nakshatras.

The Nakshatras

#

Nakshatra

Other Name

Zodiac

Name of the Lunar Month

1

Ashwini

Hamal

Aries

Ashwini

2

Bharani

Aries

3

Krittika

Alycone

Taurus

Kartik

4

Rohini

Aldebaran

Taurus

5

Mrigashrira

Alnath

Taurus

Margshrisha

6

Aardhra

Althena

Gemini

7

Punarvasu

Pollux

Gemini

8

Pushya

Al Tarf

Cancer

Paush

9

Aashiesha

AsselusAustralis

Cancer

10

Maghaa

Regulus

Leo

Maagh

11

Porva Phalguni

Chort

Leo

12

Uttara Phalguni

Zavijava

Virgo

Phalgun

13

Hastaa

Porrima

Virgo

14

Chitra

Spica

Virgo

Chaitra

15

Swato

Syrma

Virgo

16

Vishaka

Zubenelgenubi

Libra

Vaishakh

17

Anooradha

Dschubba

Scorpius

18

Jyeshta

Antares

Scorpius

Jyestha

19

Moola

Sagittarius

20

Poorvashada

Nunki

Sagittarius

Ashad

21

Uttarashada

Giedi

Capricornus

22

Shravan

Deneb Algeidi

Capricornus

Shravan

23

Dhanishta

Aquarius

24

Shatabhisha

Aquarius

25

Poorva Bhadra

Pisces

Bhadrapad

26

Uttara Bhadra

Pisces

27

Revathi

Pisces

Intercalary Month or Adhik-Maas

In the sky moon completes one month in about 29 days and appears to move from one zodiac constellation to another. On the other hand, the sun also moves from one zodiac to another in about 30 days to complete a solar month. A lunar month is precisely 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes and 3 seconds long. Twelve such months constitute a lunar years of 354 days, 8 hours, 48 minutes and 36 seconds. The solar year, on the other hand, is of about 365.25 days. Thus, after about two and half-years the lunar years falls behind the solar year by about one full month. To help the lunar month coincide with the solar year, the practice of inserting an intercalary (extra) month or Adhik-maas was followed by the astronomers. Generally speaking, 60 solar months = 62 lunar months. Therefore, an extra month, Adhik-Maas, is inserted every 30 solar months or about every two and a half years. After about thirty solar months, there will be one solar month in which the moon will appear to move from one zodiac to another while the sun will not move from one zodiac to another. In other words, when the sun remains in one zodiac constellation while the moon completes its one lunar month from full-moon to full-moon, that lunar month is called Adhik-maas.

Uttarayan and Dakshinayan

During the summers, days become long and the nights short; while during winters, it reverses. Somewhere around March and September, the days and nights are equal. These periodic and cyclical changes take place because of apparent movement of the sun from north in the summers to southward direction and from south in the winters to northward direction. In our traditional terminology, the movement of the sun from the north to southward direction is called Dakshinayan while the reverse movement is called Uttrayan. The southern declination when the sun appears to move between Cancer and Sagittarius is called Dakshinayan. The northern declination of the sun, when it appears to move between the signs of Capricon and Gemini is called Uttarayan. The sun reaches the extreme north at around 21st June in its cyclical movement and it reaches the extreme south at around 22nd December. These two points are called Summer Solstice and Winter Solstice respectively. Similarly, the two equinoxes vernal and autumnal fall on 21st March and 23rd September respectively and they mark the days when days and nights are equal.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Water

Water is life. However it is limited and there is only so much of life that it can support!

We don’t think too much about air other than when we start choking because of too much pollution. We take its availability for granted and consider it as our right, without any obligations to keep it clean! Same is true for water.

There is a lot that is being talked and written about air and air pollution, thanks to Carbon Dioxides effect on rise in temperature. However, there isn’t as much discussion about water. Most of us urban dwellers only face the water reality, when we don’t get running water in our taps. Otherwise we don’t bother. However, some facts related to water situation in India are startling.

In our country we receive 50% of yearly precipitation in 15 days and 90% of rivers flow in 4 months. In last two decades, 84% of total additional net irrigated area came from groundwater and only 16% from canals. Who so ever thought government’s big irrigation projects helped India achieve Green Revolution, time for a reality check. Ground water provides 70% of irrigated area and 80% of domestic water. Tube wells and underground aquifers are providing the temporary respite. Why temporary? Because, ground water is limited in supply. This will run out!

15% aquifers are in critical condition they are already being overdrawn. This will grow to 60% in next 25 years.

Ground water revolution has brought immense benefits for India, playing major role in irrigation, rural development and poverty reduction. However, couple developments will result in increasingly diminishing returns from the underground aquifers

Energy subsidy - Energy subsidy has enabled tapping of the ground water a viable option. However, it has run its course. For various other obvious reasons, this subsidy cannot continue forever. If we are not staring at the scenario of outright stopping of the subsidy, we definitely are getting in an era where the subsidy is not going to be able to keep pace with the ever increasing demand for energy to pump up the water from ever increasing depths!

Sustainability of the resource itself - Recharge of the underground aquifers is put to sever test as the rivers that used to run their course have been dammed and harvested, thus limiting the underground aquifer areas that they used to recharge.

Annual replenishable groundwater resources of India amount to 430 billion cubic meters. Average withdrawal amount to 160 billion cubic meters per year. However, average in this case can be very misleading. e.g. Punjab groundwater in 60% blocks is overdrawn, Haryana and TN are overdrawing in 42% and Rajasthan has gone from 17% to 60% in last 7 years!

Overall country’s 14% blocks are exploited. This is expected to reach 60% in 25 years. By 2050 water demand will increase beyond all available sources of supply.

15% of India’s food grain is produced from non-renewable mined ground water. This water is remnant of the old ice ages, water that stayed underground when the ice melted on the surface. More and more farm land is being added to the mined ground water irrigation category. In the short run, it helps in food production and feeding the people. But remember, we are running downhill towards the cliff with no wings or parachute.

We invested in building the water management infrastructure but did not take it to the next level of management infrastructure, required to keep it operational at optimum efficiency. However, we did not invest at all in public and private participation, incentives, water entitlement, transparency, competition, accountability, financing and environmental quality. Déjà vu! Most public utility infrastructure that government manages has the same story.

User charges for water are negligible. Gap between tariff and value of irrigation and water supply services has fueled endemic corruption. Staffing levels for water management in India are 10 times the international norms.

India’s water management philosophy can be aptly summed up as Build–neglect–rebuild!

Further, climate change is leading to deglaciation. The rainy days are expected to be lesser with substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Climate change will increase the variability of already highly variable rainfall pattern, requiring greater investment in managing both scarcity and floods. Area affected by flooding is going to increase significantly.

Many regions including many of the most productive agricultural and industrial regions of India, where water scarcity is already a fact of life, will experience chronic water shortage

Deglaciation is going to result in inadvertent mining of water banks of the Himalayas. This will lead to a run off windfall for a few decades, to be followed by major permanent reduction in run off. To address this challenge, large investment in water storage is required. India must harvest the water when it is available and make it available during the lean seasons. e.g river basins like Colorado in the US and Muarry-Darling in Australia can store 900 days of storage capacity, there is only about 30 days of storage capacity in most of India’s river basins

Challenge – Development of a vital and efficient urban water supply and sanitation sector. The sector has no identity, is bankrupt, is not developing the required human resources, focuses primarily on adding infrastructure, not improving the services.

It is the absence of sound incentives which is the fundamental problem facing water management in India. Incentive based approach could involve government allowing other (private players) to compete for the right to supply water and provide irrigation services, while government would focus on flood control, sewage treatment with its central task being the development and improvement of an integrated package of instruments – entitlement, pricing and regulations. This requires employing the model that has successfully been deployed in the telecom sector, albeit with much more sensitivity, as it deals with a very sensitive and emotional topic of water.

The major problems with our water management can be enumerated as follows -

State is dysfunctional. Major problem with water management in India remains the fact that it is an exclusive state subject. State must continue to be a provider however it must not be the only one. Frameworks should be created that allows other players to provide water for various types of usages, stimulating competition in and for the water supply services.

Need to empower the users by giving them clear, enforceable water entitlements. Right now a lot of what is in place is how it has been, mostly historical. However, as is easy to understand, neither is it fair, nor is it sufficient to address the present, and is woefully antiquated to handle what is looming ahead. This is required at all levels, from establishing the owners of the source and their rights, to the contracts between the providers and consumers all the way down to the end consumers

It is essential that a culture of transparency be brought in and veil of secrecy be lifted. Water being such an emotional issue it is essential to build the consensus and get as many people involved in the process as possible.

Introducing incentive based participatory regulation of services and water resources. There are two primary challenges – first to improve the quality and coverage of formal public water supply and irrigation services and second to regulate the use of groundwater. Clear and enforceable titles are a necessity. Also, it is required to break the link between land ownership and the ground water ownership. It no longer would be viable that anyone can take as much one wants from the underground aquifers.

The entire system has to be put on a sound financial footing. This must start with improving the service, winning people’s trust and then working to recover the cost. No one will pay even the cost of a dysfunctional, unreliable water system.

Invest heavily in human resource development. Any system for its success requires capable people to manage it. In present scenario the entire system is overstaffed by 10 times the international norms. However, almost all of this work force, in one form or another, is in execution, the absence of which is legendary. A few capable, well trained, people are required with clearly defined job responsibilities and accountability. A part of the work force need to operate as the think tank that defines policies and procedures keeping in mind the long term perspective.

Ensure local people are the first beneficiaries of the projects. Nothing will succeed, if the people who are impacted the first and visibly are not compensated by the policies or procedures that are put in place.

Make environment a high priority. Environment will only be an important aspect in water management if the vision is long term. Myopic vision leads to suboptimal decisions and erroneous policies.

Rules for reformers

Water is different - There is a lot that can be learned from reforms in telcom, power and transport. However water is different. While the reforms in other areas add to the convenience, changes in water management can have bearing on the people life’s itself.

Initiate reform where there is a powerful need and demonstrated demand for change. Abstract statements like “river basin management” and “integrated water resource management” don’t ring a bell with people in general. However, there are places where the general public will visibly be able to connect with such a talk. e.g in city like Chennai where the drinking water supply to the vast majority of residents is under tremendous stress.

Fiscal constraints, will sooner or later force the cities and states to seriously look at water management and related policies

The market dynamics will ensure that the Industry migrates to areas where there is better availability of water. Better availability can either be because of more water sources in that area or because of better water resources management or better still, both.

Agricultural areas, as the water becomes scarcer, the water use will have to move from low value crops to high value crops.

Involve those affected and address their concern with effective understandable information. People are for good reasons always apprehensive of changes which will be thrust upon them. When it involves something as sensitive as water, communication, discussion and information becomes central element for any reform process.

Implementation is the key. All the talks and policies are not worth the paper they are written on if these are not implemented fast and accurately.

Developing a sequenced prioritized list of reforms is essential with focus on accountability and efficiency. Once the services improve and become reliable, then increase the tariff to bring revenue in line with the cost.

Patience and persistence is a must. The reforms won’t be quick affairs. These would not run for years but decades. Nothing sells like success. Picking the low hanging fruits, where the chances of success are greatest is how it must be prioritized. Start chipping away at the problem one at a time. We won’t get to the promised state in one fell swoop. We must define small measurable steps to get there.

The major instrument is not going to be infrastructure alone, but management supported by old and new types of infrastructure. Management is going to mean systematic set of legislations, capacity adding, organizational changes, and use of entitlement, pricing, and regulatory instruments. And it is not going to be the task of government alone, but concerted and reinforcing actions by a host of stakeholders.

Don’t paint any one way of managing water as evil. Water management models may or may not be relevant based on local situations. However, there is no one method that fits all and neither is there any one model that universally must be discarded.

Reforms must provide returns for the politicians who are willing to make changes. Digvijay Singh summed it up appropriately – “If it must work, water reforms must be good politics”

Having said that, act we must!

Credit where it is due – The facts and stats above have come from the World Bank report – “India’s Water Economy – Bracing for a Turbulent Future” by John Briscoe and RPS Malike

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The lost connection


What do you do when you feel thirsty? Turn the tap, or open a bottle, of course. What do you do when you feel hungry? Toss that piece of meat or meadly of vegetables from refrigerator in the oven/microwave, of course. What do you do when you feel warm or cold? Turn on the air conditioning, of course.

Those of you who have been taking your growing kids to the ATMs, try this. Ask them, how to make money? No prize for guessing it right - Go to the ATM and get it, of course!

What is the parallel? Well, Making money thru' ATM is as unreal as making water thru' tap, or making food from combo of refrigerator and microwave! However, what is true in both the cases is the fact that this notion is held by ignorant! In case of ATMs, it is an ignorant kid and in case of water thru' tap, it is an ignorant adult. Both are far removed from reality!

I have taken some artistic liberties here, adults know that tap does not make water, but they are as far removed from the reality of from where the water comes, as is the young kid who thinks ATM makes money!

We have lost connection with our true selves. In fact we are increasingly distancing ourselves from the basics. We have become salves of our own creation. If, because of whatever reason, the water on tap and electricity on press of a button were to be disrupted, we wouldn't know how to live! Irony of the matter is more "advanced" we are the more disadvantages we would be.

This tells me one thing, there is something fundamentally wrong in the way we as humans are pursuing growth. How can growth take us away from basics? Growth is supposed to make us understand basics and make us find our peace with it! Unfortunately, exact opposite of this is at play!

Since we are so far removed from the basics and are consciously increasing the distance, we have stopped valuing it. We do not feel guilty of the fact that we are now abusing the basics of life! What do you expect one would do, if one were to truly believe that to make money one has to just go to an ATM. You can guarantee that everyone will make a run for it, making the money itself worthless. Draw a parallel here, till the time only a few were polluting, it did not cause alarm, as majority started polluting, the alarms have not ceased ringing since!

What is in question here? Existence of planet? Existence of life? Existence of our species? You guessed it right, the planet will remain and so will life, it is our species, it is our way of life that is at risk. Tear down the posters that say “Save Earth”, instead they should read “Save Ourselves”. Just so this point reaches home, for every human there are a trillion, yes you read it right a trillion nematodes (round worms)!!

Sometimes I think, if all the life forms on this planet could vote, which one species would they consign to gallows? No prize for guessing this right either. However, if you got this wrong then one thing is guaranteed, you would be the first one of that species!